Congratulations to Ken Stevens, a Democratic activist in Columbia, for winning the Maryland Matters election contest in dramatic fashion.
Stevens proved to be an expert prognosticator, correctly guessing 17 of the 20 questions we asked readers about the election. But it took the first tie-breaker to put him ahead of the contest runner-up, Nick Copper, who also made 17 correct predictions.
The difference: Stevens was closer to predicting the final vote percentage of David Lashar, the Libertarian nominee for governor. Impressively, both Stevens and Copper correctly predicted the number of seats the Democrats will hold in the state Senate beginning in 2023 (34), and the number of seats Republicans will hold in the House of Delegates (39).
Stevens joins Leonard Lucchi (2018 primary), Vaughn Stewart (2018 general election), Rich Norling (2020 general election), and Noah Habenstreit (2022 primary) in the pantheon of Maryland Matters election contest winners. And we now owe Stevens lunch!
Notably, Lucchi and Stewart finished third and fourth, respectively, in this fall’s contest, with 16 correct answers (Lucchi was closer to correctly predicting Lashar’s percentage, so he gets the bronze medal).
It was fun and interesting to see how the dozens of entries broke down (and fell apart). Obviously, picking Democrats in close races turned out to be a wise strategy. And very few contest entrants, it’s worth noting, thought former Del. Mary-Dulany James (D) would win her Senate race in Harford County’s 34th District.
Thanks to everyone who entered the contest! We’ll see you again in the 2024 primary. And here, for the record, are the correct answers:
1. Who is going to be the next governor of Maryland? Wes Moore (D)
2. Who is going to be the next comptroller? Brooke Lierman (D)
3. Who is going to be the next attorney general? Anthony Brown (D)
4. Who will get the highest percentage of the vote — Wes Moore, Brooke Lierman or Anthony Brown? Brown, with 64.88%
5. Who will get the most raw votes — Moore, Lierman or Brown? Moore, with 1,288,676
6. Who will win the 6th District congressional race in Maryland? David Trone (D)
7. Which Republican candidate for Congress will get the higher percentage of the vote — Nicolee Ambrose in the 2nd District, or Yuripzy Morgan in the 3rd District? Ambrose, with 40.63%
8. Will Democrat Heather Mizeur exceed 42% of the vote in the 1st congressional district? Yes
9. Who will be the next Frederick County executive? Jessica Fitzwater (D)
10. Who will win the rematch between Calvin Ball and Allan Kittleman in Howard County? Ball
11. Who will be sworn in as Anne Arundel County executive in December? Steuart Pittman (D)
12. Which political party will have the majority on the Anne Arundel County Council? Democrats
13. Who will be sworn in as Wicomico County executive in December? Julie Giordano (R)
14, Who will win the 9th District state Senate race between Katie Fry Hester (D) and Reid Novotny (R)? Hester
15. Who will win the 34th District Senate race between Christian Miele (R) and Mary-Dulany James (D)? James
16. Who will win the race for a House of Delegates seat in District 29B in St. Mary’s County? Brian Crosby (D)
17. How many seats will Democrats hold in the state Senate in January 2023? 34
18. How many seats will Republicans hold in the House of Delegates in January 2023? 39
19. Will the statewide vote to legalize recreational cannabis exceed 62%? Yes
20. Will Baltimore City voters support a ballot initiative to impose term limits on their elected officials? Yes
Tie-breaker #1: What percentage of the vote does David Lashar, the Libertarian Party nominee for governor, rack up? 1.5%
Tie-breaker #2: What percentage of the vote does Pat McDonough, the Republican nominee for Baltimore County executive, win? 36.1%