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Election 2024 Government & Politics

Poll: Biden tops Trump in Md. but ‘electoral disaster’ is looming

President Biden addressed the crowd at a November 2022 rally in Bowie. Photo by Danielle E. Gaines.

President Biden would win Maryland again if the 2024 election were held today but a newly released poll suggests problems for the incumbent.

A new poll released Wednesday by Annapolis-based Gonzales Research & Media finds Biden continues to dominate Republican former President Donald Trump in a presumed head-to-head general election contest. But Biden’s lead in the survey is one-third smaller than his victory over Trump in 2020. The poll also reveals other potential concerns for Biden nationally.

Pollster Patrick Gonzales said the “Free State is Joe’s state,” but the most recent poll shows an “electoral softness” with independent and Black voters. In each case, Gonzales said his survey suggests that in a three-way match up that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an independent or third party candidate, two-thirds of undecided independent and Black voters would vote for Kennedy.

“If anything close to this is the dynamic in play come fall, President Biden will be staring electoral disaster in the face — no matter how much the intensity of hatred toward Donald Trump increases,” Gonzales said.

The results are part of a Gonzales survey of 815 registered Maryland voters. The poll, conducted Jan. 23-Feb. 2, had a 3.5-point margin of error.

Part one of the Gonzales poll was released Tuesday.

The survey was completed before a special federal prosecutor released a report last week that recommended no charges against Biden for taking classified documents when he left as vice president in 2017 but again raised the discussion about the current president’s mental acuity and age.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week found Biden and Trump locked in statistical dead heat with 37% of respondents favoring Trump compared to 34% for Biden. Another 10% said they would vote for someone else and 12% said they would not vote at all, according to that poll.

Maryland has not gone to a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. And Trump remains wildly unpopular in the state with 61% of those surveyed saying they disapproved of the job Trump did while in office including 57% who “strongly disapproved.”

In Maryland, 54% of those surveyed said they approved of Biden’s job performance.

A look at individual issues, however, reveals some cracks.

More than half of voters — 54% — said the nation is on the wrong track compared to 41% who said it was moving in the right direction.

Only 48% approved of Biden’s handling of the individual issues of the economy and foreign policy — 6 points lower than his overall approval number.

On immigration and the border, only 35% approved of Biden’s efforts, 19 points lower than his overall approval number.

In a presumed rematch between the current and former presidents, Biden pulled 53% of the vote compared to Trump’s 32%, with another 15% saying they are undecided, according to Gonzales.

The 21-point margin in the poll is 12 points smaller than Biden’s 2020 performance in Maryland. Biden’s overall performance in the poll is also smaller than the total percentage of voters who “strongly disapproved” of Trump’s job performance.

In that head-to-head matchup, only 69% of Black voters said they would back Biden. Another 18% said they were undecided.

Roughly 44% of unaffiliated voters said they would vote for Biden with nearly 26% saying they were undecided.

In a three-way match-up with Kennedy, known for his promotion of anti-vaccine conspiracy theories, two-thirds of undecided Black and undecided unaffiliated voters shunned Biden and Trump.

“If this is just totally contained within Maryland, no problem,” said Gonzales. “I don’t believe that it is.”

Gonzales said the Maryland results raise questions about Biden’s performance in November.

“If I was on his campaign team I would be concerned,” said Gonzales. “And let me tell you something, they’re getting the exact same numbers across the board.”


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Poll: Biden tops Trump in Md. but ‘electoral disaster’ is looming