GOP Poll Shows Hogan With Substantial Leads Over Baker, Kamenetz

Republican Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. would win a second term in a matchup against either of two leading Democrats, if the November general election were held today, according to a GOP poll released Tuesday.

Hogan would take more than 50 percent of the vote in a hypothetical race against either Prince George’s County Executive Rushern L. Baker III or Baltimore County Executive Kevin B. Kamenetz, according to the survey by Burton Research and Strategies, a Republican polling concern.

Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan
Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr.

In a contest against Baker, Hogan would take 54 percent of the vote, compared to 29 percent for the Democrat and 15 percent of voters undecided, the poll showed. In a run against Kamenetz, Hogan would capture 57 percent of the vote, versus 26 percent, again with another 15 percent undecided.

Both Baker and Kamenetz have polled among the top-tier Democrats in nonpartisan surveys of Maryland voters conducted earlier this year. There are seven other candidates running for the party gubernatorial nomination in the state’s June 26 primary election, but none were named in the Burton poll.

Burton’s telephone poll of 600 Maryland voters was conducted March 4-8 and March 10-11, with cell phones accounting for 30 percent of the sample and landlines the rest. The margin of error was 4 points.

The survey, as released, did not include information as to where in Maryland the samples were taken, the total number of voters from each party or the gender of those voters polled. It did, however, include a measure of popularity among some voters by party and some voters by race.

For instance, Hogan not unexpectedly scored very high among Republican voters, capturing 88 percent of those “base GOPers” surveyed and 91 percent of “soft GOPers” against Baker, the poll stated. Among independents, Hogan took 56 of the vote, compared to 21 percent for Baker and another 21 percent undecided.

Baker edged out Hogan 43-39 percent among “white Democrats,” with 17 percent of voters saying they were undecided. He handily won by 20 points among African Americans, 49-29 percent, over Hogan, with 18 percent undecided, according to the poll.

Against Kamenetz, Hogan again did very well with Republican voters, taking 92 percent of the “base GOPers” and 88 percent of “soft GOPers,” the poll showed. The governor was favored heavily over Kamenetz, 60-15 percent, with 22 percent undecided among independent voters, the survey stated.

Kamenetz played a little stronger than Hogan among white Democrats, 46-38 percent, with 16 percent undecided, the poll showed. But among African Americans, Hogan was favored by 6 points over Kamenetz, 40-34 percent, with 23 undecided, according to the poll.

“Hogan’s advantage on the ballot is due to his strong numbers with Republicans, Independents and his solid appeal with white Democrats,” according to an accompanying statement from Burton Research and Strategies.

Of the 54 percent of voters who said they would vote for Hogan over Baker, 39 percent said they would “definitely” vote for the governor and 15 percent said they would “probably” vote for him, the poll stated. Meanwhile, just 18 percent of voters polled said they would “definitely” vote for Baker, while 11 percent said they would “probably” vote for him,” the poll showed.

In a matchup with Kamenetz, 39 percent of voters said they would “definitely” vote for Hogan, while another 18 percent said they would “probably” vote for him. Only 15 percent of those voters surveyed said they “definitely” would vote for Kamenetz, and another 11 percent said they would “probably” vote for him,” according to the poll.

William F. Zorzi
Bill Zorzi was a Baltimore Sun reporter and editor for nearly 20 years, focusing on government and politics. An Annapolis bureau veteran, he wrote a weekly column, “The Political Game” for the paper.Zorzi and another former Sun reporter, David Simon, are longtime collaborators on acclaimed television projects, including the HBO series, “The Wire,” and the HBO miniseries “Show Me a Hero,” which dealt with an explosive housing desegregation case in Yonkers, NY.


  1. BREAKING: Incumbent governor holds lead over two potential challengers with low statewide name ID before general election campaign begins, says polling group that supports incumbent.

    The blue wave already hit Virginia and New Jersey. It washed away a Republican seat in a Trump district of western PA. Touches down in Maryland in November.


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