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Josh Kurtz: Strolling Casually Into a Public Health Catastrophe

The state Senate this year sat on a bill that would have put an abortion rights referendum on the ballot this fall. Photo by Danielle E. Gaines.

So THIS time Democrats are vowing to mobilize their voters around the issue of abortion and the Supreme Court.

Isn’t it a little too late for those declarations, now that we’re at the precipice of a public health catastrophe?

Yes, the leak of the draft decision to overturn Roe v. Wade will change the narrative about this year’s election and reorder some of the parties’ strategic priorities. But will it transform the overall political dynamic for the 2022 elections all that much?

Absolutely, many voters will be motivated to go to the polls because of the abortion issue. But most will still cast their votes based on their economic jitters and overall unease, fueled by mass media charlatans and other bad actors. So a big Republican victory still seems like the likeliest scenario.

Democrats always seem to be a few steps behind the Republicans when it comes to gaming the system and now America is suffering the consequences. Now we’re living in a Banana Republic.

For years, Republicans and their allies invested heavily in statehouses — and it didn’t cost much. It’s given them the upper hand for the past few election cycles in the redistricting process, and that has serious and long-lasting consequences. Where were the Democrats?

Then, conservatives turned their attention to remaking the judiciary, and they have succeeded spectacularly — all the while railing against “activist judges” when it was activist judges on their side that they were seeking.

Since 2020, Republicans have made it clear that one of their top priorities is electing more state and local elections officials, to grab even more control of the voting machinery than they already have. It’s not like Democrats weren’t forewarned; “Stop the Steal” telegraphed it completely.

So where are the Democrats? Trying to gin up their voters with the inevitability that Roe v. Wade is  about to be gone and the message that things may yet get worse. The time to transmit that message was a thousand yesterdays ago. Tens of millions of women across the country are about to lose their access to critical reproductive health services.

Democrats take great pride in their trailblazing leaders, like Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. But let’s face it, as historically significant as Obama and Pelosi are, the most consequential political figure of the last three decades by far has been Mitch McConnell, who invents new ways of infuriating and jamming the Democrats every day, and whose tactics on Supreme Court nominees — killing Merrick Garland’s nomination on one made-up principle and then rushing through Amy Coney Barrett’s on another — have been both brilliant and every bit the performance of a political strongman.

So while Democrats were throwing garlands at Obama and Pelosi — and make no mistake, Pelosi is as tough and strategic a legislative tactician as you can get — McConnell was kicking Garland to the curb. He has almost single-handedly remade the federal judiciary, eviscerated campaign finance reform, and established a precedent of Republicans resisting every move every Democratic president makes from the jump, with no shame or regret.

And while we’re talking Banana Republics, consider the trajectories of the five Supreme Court justices who seem hell-bent on eliminating Roe v. Wade.

Clarence Thomas saw his nomination pushed through even though there were credible witnesses beyond Anita Hill teed up to testify about his alleged sexual harassment. (Thank you, Joe Biden.)

The other four justices — Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Barrett — were nominated by presidents who lost the popular vote and confirmed by a narrow majority of senators representing significantly less than half the nation’s population. These justices have lifetime appointments to do as they wish, without regard to societal imperatives or political and policy evolutions.

So sure, Democrats, go ahead, make this election about women’s health and reproductive freedoms. They’re already in terrible jeopardy. And how is everybody feeling about the state of our democracy?

Here in Maryland, we can comfort ourselves knowing that abortion rights were affirmed by a strong margin in a statewide referendum 30 years ago and that the legislature this year worked to expand access to abortion and allow medical professionals besides physicians to perform the procedure. But we are still scratching our heads over the state Senate’s inexplicable decision to sit on a measure, which passed the House, that would have placed a referendum to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution on the November ballot.

Outwardly, Senate leaders seemed to suggest that they were reluctant to have a floor fight over such an emotional issue so late in the session, with other important legislation lined up behind it. But the reality is, certain Democratic lawmakers did not want to have to vote on the bill or have it become a high-profile issue in the November election.

Here’s the strongest proof of the continuity from Mike Miller to Bill Ferguson. Every time a moderate or weak-kneed Democratic senator sneezes, the leadership thinks the entire Democratic caucus has the flu.

A referendum battle over abortion in Maryland would surely have riled up conservative voters and brought them to the polls. But the simple fact is there were there are more far more Democrats and abortion-rights supporters, and this would have accrued to the Democrats’ political advantage in November.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Kelly Schulz put out a Hoganesque statement this week about her own personal opposition to abortion but recognizing that it’s settled law in the state. She’s clearly hoping she can wave away the issue for the rest of the election. But if the abortion initiative had been allowed on the November ballot, she’d be asked about it over and over again.

Gov. Hogan vetoed the bill to expand abortion services, though it was overridden in the House and Senate. Now he’s bottling up $3.5 million in funding to train abortion care providers. As a leading abortion rights advocate, Del. Ariana B. Kelly (D-Montgomery), told The Washington Post this week, “If someone is running for public office and tells you they don’t support reproductive rights, believe them.”

Beyond these political considerations, there’s this policy and legal reality: If one day there’s an all Republican Congress and a Republican in the White House, and they pass a law to eliminate abortion rights nationwide, having abortion in the state constitution would certainly strengthen Maryland’s position in any subsequent legal challenge.

Let’s be charitable and call this another opportunity missed for the Democrats. But you really have to wonder why they disarmed when Republicans in Washington never would.

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Josh Kurtz: Strolling Casually Into a Public Health Catastrophe