Poll Carries Good News, Yet Again, for Hogan — And Maybe for Kelly Schulz

Another day, another poll showing astronomical job approval ratings for Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R), as he enters his final legislative session as governor.

The survey released Tuesday morning by Gonzales Research & Media Services, an Arnold-based polling firm, showed Hogan with a 74% job approval rating — and even higher approval numbers for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic (76%).

“With a deft touch, Hogan has navigated the choppy, partisan puddle of politics and kept his ship sailing straight and fast, as others have sputtered and sunk during these turbulent times,” pollster Patrick E. Gonzales wrote in a memo accompanying his survey.

The poll of 807 registered voters, conducted Dec. 20-30, had a 3.5-point margin of error.

Perhaps more significantly, the Gonzales poll indirectly carries very good numbers for outgoing state Commerce Secretary Kelly M. Schulz, one of three Republicans running for governor and Hogan’s choice to replace him — though it did not query voters about her or any of the potential candidates for governor.

Hogan’s popularity has been a staple of polls in Maryland for the past half dozen years. Since January 2016, the Gonzales poll has shown the governor with approval ratings of anywhere from 67% to 78% — numbers that any politician would envy.

Hogan has never had very long coattails, however, and political professionals of both parties have wondered whether he would ever be able to transfer some of his sheen to a preferred successor. That answer may not be knowable until the June 28 primaries or the November general election.

Among the figures that seem favorable to Schulz is that 57% of all Marylanders believe the state is headed in the right direction, compared to 34% who do not. That number may be more durable when Hogan and his allies call for continuity in state government than the governor’s own personal popularity.

By the same token, President Biden is showing middling approval numbers, especially for a Democratic state like Maryland. He had a 54% job approval rating in the Gonzales survey, compared to 43% who said they disapproved of his job performance. Fifty-seven percent of voters approved of Biden’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic, but just 45% called his handling of the economy “excellent” or “pretty good,” compared to 54% who called it “fair” or “poor.” The latter number, in particular, has got to be concerning for Democrats.

“Regarding Biden’s management of the economy, Marylanders are in a bit of a malaise,” Gonzales observed.

While 10 Democrats are battling to replace Hogan, Schulz’s principal opponent for the Republican nomination is Del. Daniel L. Cox of Frederick, who was endorsed late last year by former President Trump. The Gonzales poll did not survey voters’ views on Trump, though he remains popular with most rank-and-file Republicans, which could aid Cox’s cause.

Nevertheless, Hogan also remains popular with Republicans, with a 68% job approval rating among GOP voters surveyed by Gonzales, and that could be significant if the gubernatorial primary turns into a proxy fight between Hogan and Trump. On the other hand, only 34% of Republican voters said the state was moving in the right direction, compared to 58% who said it was headed on the wrong track — a potentially significant finding for the GOP primary.

As for Hogan’s own political fate, Republican leaders in Washington, D.C., are trying to recruit him to challenge U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D) this year. And while Hogan is likely to resist those entreaties, here’s another sobering number for Democrats as they contemplate that hypothetical race: 78% of their voters approved of the job Hogan is doing as governor when queried by the Gonzales poll.

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