Georgia Voters Could Determine Control of the U.S. Senate

Control of the U.S. Senate may depend on two runoff races in Georgia, where the outcome won’t be known until early January—opening the door to a fresh round of massive campaign spending in the Peach State.

One runoff between Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock is set. Another  runoff between Republican Sen. David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff has yet to be scheduled. And Republicans already are scrambling to raise funds.

“The fate of the Senate Majority is on the line in Georgia,” the National Republican Senatorial Committee—an arm of the GOP that works to maintain its control in the Senate—texted to donors Thursday. “If you don’t step up now, (Sen. Chuck) Schumer and the Dems take control.”

Republicans and Democrats are in a 48-48 deadlock for control of the U.S. Senate, with four races—Alaska, two in Georgia and North Carolina—still uncalled. Alaska and North Carolina are considered likely to be held by Republicans, so Georgia could be the decider. Runoffs would be held on Jan. 5.

Michigan boosted Senate Democrats’ numbers when Sen. Gary Peters narrowly won reelection against Republican John James, in a race the Associated Press called Wednesday night.

“It’s an honor to serve you for another six years in the U.S. Senate,” Peters said in a statement. “To all who believed in us, gave your time and effort in our fight: thank you for putting your trust in me.”

Republicans fend off challengers

Democrats so far have gained only one Senate seat.

The party was favored to flip five to seven seats in toss-up races with vulnerable Republicans, but the GOP was able to defend seats in Montana, Iowa, South Carolina, Texas and Maine.

Democrats flipped two seats, Cory Gardner’s in Colorado and Martha McSally’s in Arizona, but lost Sen. Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama—as expected.

In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has declared himself the victor, leading challenger Cal Cunningham by fewer than 2 percentage points. Officials have counted about 93% of votes but it’s considered unlikely that Cunningham would overcome Tillis.

“What we accomplished tonight was a stunning victory,” Tillis said in a victory speech Wednesday. “We did it against all the odds, right?”

Nearly a month before the race, Cunningham was embroiled in a scandal in which text messages revealed he had an extramarital affair. The North Carolina race was also the most expensive campaign race ever, with nearly $250 million in spending, including from outside sources.

In Alaska, where officials have counted only half of the votes, incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan has a healthy lead of 62% over his opponent, Democrat Al Gross. However, vote counting isn’t expected to be completed until Nov. 18, because absentee votes won’t start being tallied until Nov. 10.

Because of the pandemic, there are thousands of uncounted mail ballots.

The outcome in the presidential race is still unknown, but The Associated Press says Democratic candidate Joe Biden is currently in the lead with 264 electoral college votes, as President Donald Trump trails with 214. The winner needs 270 electoral college votes.

Biden and GOP Senate?

As Senate races slowly trickle in, it seems more likely that a Biden administration would have to work with a Republican-controlled Senate.

For Republicans to maintain their Senate majority, they need to win in North Carolina, Alaska and in one of the Georgia races. Doing that would give them a 51-49 edge.

If Democrats lose Alaska and North Carolina but win both Georgia seats, it would be a 50-50 deadlock. And if Democrats capture the presidency, Democrat Kamala Harris, as vice president, would break tie votes.

“That means that in those two Senate runoffs … Democrats would have to flip control of both,” Jessica Taylor, a Senate analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report wrote in a post. “And again, where virtually nothing went right for them on Election Night, it’s not a given these would in the Peach State either.”

Loeffler, who was appointed by Gov. Brian Kemp after Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson stepped down due to health problems, did not reach the 50% threshold required to keep her seat. In Georgia, if neither candidate gets a majority of the votes, the top two performing candidates must compete in a runoff election.

Another Republican running in that race, Doug Collins, conceded and pledged his support for Loeffler.

In the nearly 96% of votes that were reported, Warnock received about 1.5 million, Loeffler received about 1.2 million and Collins got about 990,000 votes. If Republican voters unite to back Loeffler in January, it may be difficult for Warnock to defeat her.

However, if there is a runoff race between Perdue and Ossoff, it could be much closer, since Perdue has a slim lead over his opponent.

“When a runoff is called and held in January, Georgians are going to send Jon to the Senate to defend their health care and put the interests of working families and small businesses ahead of corporate lobbyists,” Ossoff’s campaign manager, Ellen Foster, said in a statement. “Georgians are sick and tired of the endless failure, incompetence, and corruption of Senator Perdue and Donald Trump.”

Ben Fry, Perdue’s campaign manager, said in a statement that the senator was confident he would win if a runoff election was called.

“If overtime is required when all of the votes have been counted, we’re ready, and we will win,” he said.

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